Characteristics | Training set (n = 103) | External Validation set 1 (n = 48) | External Validation set 2 (n = 51) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low grade (n = 77) | High grade (n = 26) | P-value | Low grade (n = 38) | High grade (n = 10) | P-value | Low grade (n = 37) | High grade (n = 14) | P-value | |
Gender | Â | Â | 0.683 | Â | Â | 0.854 | Â | Â | 0.792 |
 Male | 53 | 19 |  | 23 | 7 |  | 27 | 9 |  |
 Female | 24 | 7 |  | 15 | 3 |  | 10 | 5 |  |
Age (year, range) | 46 ~ 83 | 49 ~ 79 | 0.185 | 47–79 | 51–80 | 0.061 | 48–79 | 46–79 | 0.647 |
Symptom | Â | Â | 0.122 | Â | Â | 0.336 | Â | Â | 0.107 |
 Yes | 31 | 15 |  | 14 | 6 |  | 12 | 8 |  |
 No | 46 | 11 |  | 24 | 4 |  | 25 | 6 |  |
Largest cyst size (cm) | Â | Â | 0.042 | Â | Â | 0.044 | Â | Â | 0.020 |
 > 3 | 27 | 15 |  | 11 | 7 |  | 13 | 10 |  |
 ≤ 3 | 50 | 11 |  | 27 | 3 |  | 24 | 4 |  |
Size of MPD (cm) | Â | Â | 0.005 | Â | Â | 0.047 | Â | Â | 0.002 |
 No dilatation | 28 | 3 |  | 11 | 1 |  | 12 | 1 |  |
 ≤ 5 | 32 | 2 |  | 15 | 1 |  | 16 | 2 |  |
 5 ~ 10 | 12 | 13 |  | 10 | 6 |  | 7 | 5 |  |
 ≥ 10 | 5 | 8 |  | 2 | 2 |  | 2 | 6 |  |
Enhancing mural nodule | Â | Â | 0.027 | Â | Â | 0.017 | Â | Â | 0.014 |
 Yes | 18 | 12 |  | 9 | 7 |  | 10 | 9 |  |
 No | 59 | 14 |  | 29 | 3 |  | 27 | 5 |  |
Thickened and enhancing cyst walls | Â | Â | 0.116 | Â | Â | 0.278 | Â | Â | 0.247 |
 Yes | 20 | 11 |  | 12 | 5 |  | 12 | 7 |  |
 No | 57 | 15 |  | 26 | 5 |  | 25 | 7 |  |
Abrupt change in caliber of pancreatic duct with distal pancreatic atrophy | Â | Â | 0.694 | Â | Â | 0.569 | Â | Â | 0.644 |
 Yes | 15 | 6 |  | 6 | 3 |  | 9 | 5 |  |
 No | 62 | 20 |  | 32 | 7 |  | 28 | 9 |  |
CA19–9, kU/L |  |  | <  0.001 |  |  | 0.001 |  |  | <  0.001 |
 Normal | 65 | 10 |  | 31 | 3 |  | 33 | 5 |  |
 Elevated | 12 | 16 |  | 7 | 7 |  | 4 | 9 |  |
CEA, ng/mL | Â | Â | 0.978 | Â | Â | 0.215 | Â | Â | 0.714 |
 Normal | 62 | 21 |  | 32 | 6 |  | 30 | 10 |  |
 Elevated | 15 | 5 |  | 6 | 4 |  | 7 | 4 |  |
Indication for surgery | Â | Â | 0.034 | Â | Â | 0.040 | Â | Â | 0.013 |
 High risk factors | 14 | 10 |  | 7 | 5 |  | 6 | 7 |  |
 No high risk factors | 63 | 16 |  | 31 | 5 |  | 31 | 7 |  |