Table 3 Cancer detection rates in both study scenarios

All cancers (n = 2041)

1301 (63.7); ref.

1509 (73.9); ref.

Screen-detected cancers (n = 1479)

1262 (85.3); ref.

1479 (100.0); ref.

Interval cancers (n = 562)

< 12 months after screening (n = 170)

≥ 12 months after screening (n = 392)

39 (6.9); ref.

13 (7.7); ref.

26 (6.6); ref.

30 (5.3); ref.

14 (8.2); ref.

16 (4.1); ref.

Histological subtype

Invasive ductal (n = 1393)

Invasive lobular (n = 222)

Other invasive (n = 215)

Ductal carcinoma in situ (n = 211)

905 (65.0); ref.

117 (52.7); ref.

103 (47.9); ref.

176 (83.4); ref.

907 (65.1); 0.96

128 (57.7); 0.19

87 (40.5); 0.052

179 (84.8); 0.78

833 (59.8); 0.0002

114 (51.4); 0.79

79 (36.7); 0.003

171 (81.0); 0.60

1034 (74.2); ref.

143 (64.4); ref.

121 (56.3); ref.

211 (100.0); ref.

1072 (77.0); 0.001

154 (69.4); 0.03

122 (56.7); >0.99

207 (98.1); 0.13

1053 (75.6); 0.08

145 (65.3); 0.82

122 (56.7); >0.99

202 (95.7); 0.004

Tumour size*

0–10 mm (n = 577)

11–20 mm (n = 790)

21–50 mm (n = 380)

51 + mm (n = 49)

Unknown (n = 34)

399 (69.2); ref.

521 (66.0); ref.

174 (45.8); ref.

17 (34.7); ref.

14 (41.2); ref.

379 (65.7); 0.15

513 (64.9); 0.59

194 (51.1); 0.05

26 (53.1); 0.02

10 (29.4); 0.34

342 (59.3); <0.0001

475 (60.1); 0.001

177 (46.6); 0.84

23 (49.9); 0.11

9 (26.5); 0.23

496 (86.0); ref.

581 (73.5); ref.

189 (49.7); ref.

18 (36.7); ref.

14 (41.2); ref.

484 (83.9); 0.10

598 (75.7); 0.04

226 (59.5); <0.0001

24 (49.0); 0.07

16 (47.1); 0.63

482 (83.5); 0.04

583 (73.8); 0.89

216 (56.8); <0.0001

22 (44.9); 0.22

17 (50.0); 0.30^†

Malignancy grade*

Grade 1 (n = 507)

Grade 2 (n = 815)

Grade 3 (n = 358)

Unknown (n = 150)

331 (65.3); ref.

520 (63.8); ref.

193 (53.9); ref.

81 (54.0); ref.

359 (70.8); 0.02

526 (64.5); 0.73

174 (48.6); 0.05

63 (42.0); 0.01

324 (63.9); 0.60

487 (59.8); 0.03

157 (43.9); 0.0002

58 (38.7); 0.001

410 (80.9); ref.

587 (72.0); ref.

202 (56.4); ref.

99 (66.0); ref.

418 (82.5); 0.23

617 (75.7); 0.001

217 (60.6); 0.01

96 (64.0); 0.58

410 (80.9); 1.00

605 (74.2); 0.04

208 (58.1); 0.33

97 (64.7); 0.73

TNM stage*

Local (I + II) (n = 1761)

Locally advanced (III) (n = 44)

Distant metastasis (IV) (n = 20)

Unknown (n = 5)

1105 (62.8); ref.

15 (34.1); ref.

4 (20.0); ref.

1 (20.0); ref.

1100 (62.5); 0.85

14 (31.8); 1.00

7 (35.0); 0.10^†

1 (20.0); 1.00^†

1006 (57.1); <0.0001

13 (29.6); 0.73

6 (30.0); 0.63

1 (20.0); 1.00^†

1280 (72.7); ref.

13 (30.0); ref.

4 (20.0); ref.

1 (20.0); ref.

1324 (75.2); 0.0004

16 (36.4); 0.38

7 (35.0); 0.10^†

1 (20.0); 1.00^†

1296 (73.6); 0.20

16 (36.4); 0.32^†

7 (35.0); 0.10^†

1 (20.0); 1.00^†

Lymph node positivity*

No (n = 1340)

Yes (n = 490)

840 (62.7); ref.

285 (58.2); ref.

826 (61.6); 0.48

296 (60.4); 0.38

759 (56.6); <0.0001

267 (54.5); 0.13

984 (73.4); ref.

314 (64.1); ref.

1005 (75.0); 0.05

343 (70.0); 0.0001

992 (74.0); 0.47

328 (66.9); 0.06

ER positivity*

0% (n = 207)

1–9% (n = 98)

10–100% (n = 1514)

Unknown (n = 11)

96 (46.4); ref.

46 (46.9); ref.

977 (64.5); ref.

6 (54.6); ref.

75 (36.2); 0.003

38 (38.8); 0.22

1003 (66.3); 0.20

6 (54.6); 1.00

67 (32.4); <0.0001

33 (33.7); 0.04

920 (60.8); 0.005

6 (54.6); 1.00

102 (49.3); ref.

49 (50.0); ref.

1140 (75.3); ref.

7 (63.6); ref.

100 (48.3); 0.82

57 (58.2); 0.02

1183 (78.1); 0.0002

8 (72.7); 0.76^†

101 (48.8); 1.00

51 (52.0); 0.75

1160 (76.6); 0.08

8 (72.7); 0.76^†

HER2 status*

Negative (n = 1581)

Positive (n = 225)

Unknown (n = 24)

992 (62.8); ref.

123 (54.7); ref.

10 (41.7); ref.

986 (62.4); 0.81

128 (56.9); 0.55

8 (33.3); 0.69

902 (57.1); <0.0001

116 (51.6); 0.37

8 (33.3); 0.69

1151 (72.8); ref.

135 (60.0); ref.

12 (50.0); ref.

1194 (75.5); 0.0003

142 (63.1); 0.21

12 (50.0); 1.00

1168 (73.9); 0.15

140 (62.2); 0.33

12 (50.0); 1.00